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REEF-FUTURES
The futures of reef services in the Anthropocene
On tropical and temperate shallow reefs (<50m deep), perhaps more than anywhere in the world, natural and human systems share a history of strong interconnection that must be considered in any attempt to secure, on one side, the long-term human development and well-being, and, on the other side, marine biodiversity. Surprisingly, we still lack integrated scenarios for simulating the dynamics of shallow reefs social-ecological systems on a long-term basis to better anticipate their futures within a context of global changes (climate and human demography).
The project will follow a data-to-model-to-decision-making process and will meet two main objectives:
• Based on a global database of fish surveys over more than 5,000 reefs, determine the conditions (governance, social, economic, and environmental) under which five key ecosystem services provided by reef fishes are currently maintained or threatened: (i) biomass production providing livelihoods, (ii) nutrient cycling that affects productivity, (iii) regulation of the carbon cycle that affects atmospheric CO2 concentration, (iv) cultural value that sustains tourism activities, and (v) nutritional value insuring food security. The project will estimate, through multivariate and non-linear models, the boundaries or thresholds beyond which these ecosystem services may collapse.
• Predict the potential futures of these services and more generally of the social-ecological systems under various global change scenarios. Using multiple integrated scenarios (human demography, economic development and climate change) and predictive models, the project will simulate the dynamics of shallow reef ecosystems and their ability to deliver these services during the next century.