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Abrupt climate change and drastic land-use change, along with other human-made disturbances, have already triggered species extinctions, range shifts, and phenological changes. However, up to now research has mostly provided simplified predictions and scenarios that overlook many of the most relevant biological processes in ecological systems and do not report or assess uncertainties. First, most biodiversity models have been heavily criticized because they ignore basic mechanisms, such as biotic interactions and links between trophic levels (e.g. predator-prey). A second, strongly related limitation is that the relationship between multi-trophic assemblages, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services is poorly understood and modelled. Third, most current studies of biodiversity and ecosystem services focus on a single biodiversity model or one or a few climate scenarios. Finally, the conservation agenda needs a paradigm shift from focusing on species rarity and threat alone to also securing the structure and functioning of food-webs.

FutureWeb will integrate predictive biogeography, geography, biostatistics and trophic web ecology to derive an ensemble of scenarios of the impact of global change on multi-trophic vertebrate biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and the provision of ecosystem services in Europe. Through an effective involvement of relevant stakeholders, the project will adapt methodological choices, scenarios and indicators in such a way that the results are useful for conservation planning and decision-making support.

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